It may come as a big surprise to many based on the recent elections in the House of Representatives and the large unemployment rate, but President Barack Obama is likely to win the 2012 presidential election. According to Ray Fair, an economist at Yale University, if the American economy continues to improve through 2012, President Obama will win by a landslide. Mr. Fair has created a model that shows the effects that the economy can have on a Presidential election. It has been his experience that if the economy is improving in the election year, the President will often get re-elected.
I agree with Mr. Fair that the economy plays a major role in the election of a President. I think that most will want to re-elect a President if they see that he is doing something right economically. I also think that it is a little too early to judge how well the economy is doing. The country still has almost a ten percent unemployment rate and I don’t think that number will just change overnight. If Obama is to be re-elected, I think that he will have to find some more Americans jobs.
-Max
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